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Aluminium

Aluminium News

EVENTS

The tariff war practiced by the USA is not over yet and has created/still creates global economic anomalies.

Since the beginning of 2025, the aluminium ingot premium DDP Rotterdam has dropped from $370/t to $186/t, while in the USA the DDP Midwest ingot premium has increased from $519/t to $1571/t…

The strong influence of geopolitical and environmental factors has also been felt in the last two quarters, visible in the fluctuations of the following charts (weekly averages, minimum values in red and maximum values in blue):

  • Alumina price (raw material for electrolytic aluminium) in $/t (continued to decline after the increases caused by incidents in Australia and Ghana)

  • LME 3 Months Seller in $/t (inconsistent evolution, often below the LME C&S level)

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  • LME Cash & Settlement in $/t

  • LME stock in thousand tonnes


  • EURO/USD exchange rate

  • And last but not least, LME Cash & Settlement in €/t

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The last quarters have confirmed, for the year 2025, an increase in primary aluminium production, with the growth being mainly supported by China.

Most medium- and long-term forecasts indicate that aluminium’s upward trend will continue, driven by sustainable applications in renewable energy, transportation (especially electric vehicles), electronics, and more recently, the defense industry.

A strong increase in recycled aluminium production is expected.


CONCLUSION

Although there are clear signs that aluminium production and consumption will continue to grow in 2025, the evolution of the aluminium market will primarily depend on the degree to which the global economy is disrupted by U.S. economic policies under the new presidency.

In Q3–Q4/2025, we estimate that:

  • The price of alumina will continue to fall within a logical range of 12–16% of the LME C&S price in $/t

  • A primary aluminium deficit of several tens of thousands of tonnes will emerge, but recycled aluminium production will increase

  • LME C&S in $/t will fluctuate between 2500 and 2700 $/t, with an annual average target of 2,560–2,580 $/t (the average for the first 6 months was 2,539 $/t)

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